Last season I wrote pieces on securing different stats in Fantasy Basketball. Along with a thorough analysis of previous seasons and trends, I also included a list of suggested targets for each major stat in Fantasy Basketball, like Steals. Sometime I combined categories (FG and 3PT, AST and TO, etc).
This year I will take a look back at my suggested targets and present new analysis and suggested targets. I hope you will find them useful.
I will start off, much like last year, with a simple, but hard to come by, stat: Steals. I’ve always been a sucker for defense. As a player, I started out as a defender and long range shooter at SG/SF. I LOVED ballhawks like Gary Payton and Mookie Blaylock. This was in the early 90’s, an era when league leaders would average around 3 steals a game (last time a player actually averaged over 3 steals a game for a season was in 1990-1991, Alvin Robertson, Larry Hughes was close in 2004-2005).
The downward trend for steals had been clearly visible when counting the number of players averaging over 2 steals a game. 2017-2018 has me somewhat hopeful, though:
How many players averaged 2 steals per game, or more?
- 2017 – 2018: 6
- 2016 – 2017: 3
- 2015 – 2016: 6
- 2014 – 2015: 4
- 2013 – 2014: 3
- 2012 – 2013: 4
- 2011 – 2012: 3
- 2010 – 2011: 3
- 2009 – 2010: 3
- 2008 – 2009: 2
- 2007 – 2008: 6
- 2006 – 2007: 7
- 2005 – 2006: 5
- 2004 – 2005: 5
- 2003 – 2004: 4
- 2002 – 2003: 6
- 2001 – 2002: 4
- 2000 – 2001: 7
- 1999 – 2000: 7
- 1998 – 1999: 13
- 1997 – 1998: 8
- 1996 – 1997: 9
- 1995 – 1996: 8
- 1994 – 1995: 7
- 1993 – 1994: 9
- 1992 – 1993: 10
- 1991 – 1992: 12
- 1990 – 1991: 15
- 1989 – 1990: 14
- 1988 – 1989: 15
- 1987 – 1988: 13
And what average topped the league?
2017 – 2018 Victor Oladipo at 2.36
2016 – 2017 Draymond Green at 2.03
2015 – 2016 Stephen Curry at 2.14
2014 – 2015 Kawhi Leonard at 2.31
2013 – 2014 Chris Paul at 2.48
2012 – 2013 Chris Paul at 2.41
2011 – 2012 Chris Paul at 2.53
2010 – 2011 Chris Paul at 2.35
2009 – 2010 Rajon Rondo at 2.33
2008 – 2009 Chris Paul at 2.77
2007 – 2008 Chris Paul at 2.71
2006 – 2007 Baron Davis at 2.14
2005 – 2006 Gerald Wallace at 2.51
2004 – 2005 Larry Hughes at 2.89
2003 – 2004 Baron Davis at 2.36
2002 – 2003 Allen Iverson at 2.74
2001 – 2002 Allen Iverson at 2.8
2000 – 2001 Allen Iverson at 2.51
1999 – 2000 Eddie Jones at 2.67
1998 – 1999 Kendall Gill at 2.68
1997 – 1998 Mookie Blaylock at 2.61
1996 – 1997 Mookie Blaylock at 2.72
1995 – 1996 Gary Payton at 2.85
1994 – 1995 Scottie Pippen at 2.94
1993 – 1994 Nate McMillan at 2.96
1992 – 1993 Michael Jordan at 2.83
1991 – 1992 John Stockton at 2.98
1990 – 1991 Alvin Robertson 3.04
1989 – 1990 Michael Jordan at 2.77
1988 – 1989 John Stockton 3.21
1987 – 1988 Michael Jordan 3.16
Notice the drop in league leading averages since 1994, when the Hand Checking rules were changed. MJ’s 2.77 steals per game in 1989 was topped only once (Hughes, 2004) since the rules change.
This season, Victor Oladipo led the league with 2.4 steals per game, the highest average since Chris Paul put up 2.48 steals per game in 2013-2014. Dipo had three games in which he got 6 or more steals this season, TJ McConnell, Paul George and Boogie each had two such games. CP only averaged 1.7 steals per game this season. Jimmy Butler, Paul Goerge, Eric Bledsoe, Kris Dunn all averaged exactly 2.0 steals per game last season. Out of that bunch, I think Kris Dunn has the best chance to challenge Dipo as a league leader in steals. The others mostly averaged 1.6-1.9 steals per game in previous seasons. Victor Oladipo averaged 3.1 steals post All Star break, which might be a sign of things to come. Paul George’s steals numbers really tapered off post All Star break, as he struggled altogether, which can somewhat be explained by Andre Roberson’s absence. Corey Brewer did actually provide really great steals numbers over the last weeks of the season, but I’ll touch on that a bit later on.
In previous years, guys like Larry Hughes and if you really go far back, Kendall Gill could be had a very reasonable prices (Hughes was probably a 5th or 6th round pick in 2004 drafts and Gill was mostly considered in the same rounds as Kenny Smith, Derek Harper and such back in the day when you still had to send in your rosters by mail – he had never averaged over 2 steals per game previous to that year, or never did again after that year.
Now let’s take a look at more recent seasons – what are the trends we can find for draftable players?
Let’s assume your league has 12 teams and each team has 15 players rostered, and it’s a 9-cat league. That’s 180 players rostered (I’m cutting some corners here, as there will always be players rostered outside of this top 180 – people will prefer to roster PJ Tucker, Pascal Siakam, Jordan Clarkson, Moe Harkless etc over Damion Leee or Cameron Payne in most leagues).
What’s the average amount of steals these top 180 players got for each season?
- 2017 – 2018: 1.02901983
- 2016 – 2017: 1.01595659
- 2015 – 2016: 1.05094439
- 2014 – 2015: 1.00882484
- 2013 – 2014: 1.02068121
- 2012 – 2013: 1.05136976
- 2011 – 2012: 1.01746295
- 2010 – 2011: 0.98020540
- 2009 – 2010: 0.99888955
- 2008 – 2009: 1.01569093
- 2007 – 2008: 1.01325937
- 2006 – 2007: 1.01503578
- 2005 – 2006: 0.99135125
- 2004 – 2005: 1.04485752
- 2003 – 2004: 1.07774316
I mentioned this last year as well: The average amount of steals for players, generally, rostered by 12 team leagues has hovered right around 1 steal/game, with exteremely little deviation. It’s becoming harder and harder to pick a couple of players who will help you win the steals category most weeks. Among the six players averaging 2 steals or more, only one guy would be available after the 3rd round (Kris Dunn), while Bledsoe is the only 3rd round guy. Patrick Beverly and Dunn are the only two players who had 1.7+ steals per game, but 7th round value. All others: 5th round or higher, and a guy like Ben Simmons is probably gone before you arrive in the third round in some leagues.
25 players averaged 1.5+ steals per game among theese top 180 Fantasy Players, none of them available after the 7th round. Seventh round value (17-18) guys with 1.5+ steals per game are: Kris Dunn, Patrick Beverley, Lonzo Ball, Ricky Rubio, Kyle Anderson and Kent Bazemore. And I bet all of them, this side of Kent and PatBev, will be gone by the time you’ve arrived in your league’s sixth round this year. Long story short: after the 7th round, it will be hard to secure pieces to win your steals category (average steals for 8th-15th round players: 0.81 steals/game, none of them averaged over 1.3 steals/game). Realistically, only 6-8 guys averaging 1.5+ steals figure to be available after the third round. (There’s potential for a joke about getting a steal in late rounds in heere somewhere.)
Some fun info which might come of use in your draft/league:
Among the top 20 players, only Durant (0.74), KAT (0.78), LMA (0.57) and Porzingis (0.75) averaged under 0.8 steals per game. In the top 30, only Kevin Love (0.72) can be added to that list. Vucevic also averages under 1.0 steals per game, and is the only player, outside of the names mentioned earlier, to get under a steal per game in the top 30. Combining any of these players during your first three rounds will have you scrambling for steals later on (or punt them). On the other hand, combining any of Victor Oladipo, Paul George, Eric Bledsoe, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Russell Westbrook, Gary Harris, James Harden, Ben Simmons, Chris Paul, Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis in your first three rounds will have you winning the steals category weekly.
I pegged a few guys outside of the top 30 to target during drafts if you needed steals. Most of them returned good value:
- Thad Young 1.67 steals/game in 2017-2018
- Covington 1.71 steals/game in 2017-2018
- Ariza 1.46 steals/game in 2017-2018
- Rubio 1.57 steals/game in 2017-2018
- Drummond 1.46 steals/game in 2017-2018
Lower end players brought more risk and probably should only have been streamed when in trouble:
- Thabo and Tony Allen stwere injured, so they shouldn’t have been on anyone’s watchlist.
- Tucker 1.0 steals/game in 2017-2018
- TJ McConell 1.2 steals/game in 2017-2018
Those last four suggestions weren’t so great (although they were still above average for their respective postions), so I’ll have to give a better effort there this time around.
Now, when looking at average production per position, I’m going to take a broader look at positions (G,F and C) compared to last year, due to the game changing and more players getting multiple position eligibility.
In 2017-2018 the averages per position were:
- Guards: 1.126
- Forwards: 0.927
- Centers: 0.752
Now, going by those averages, there are some players who get an significant amount of steals more than their counterparts. For each position these players, helping you most in steals, are:
Center:
- Andre Drummond 1.46 steals, almost double of what you’d expect from an average center.
- Nikola Jokic 1.20 steals, almost twice as much as his blocks.
- Nikola Vucevic 0.98 steals, not sure if sustainable with Bamba incoming.
- Steven Adams, 1.21 steals, I’ve seen some people say he’s overrated in Fantasy. Disagree strongly.
- Willie Cauley-Stein, 1.05 steals, not sure what will happen in Sacramento. Giles is good as well, but WCS migth be a great fit next to Bagley. I’m sure he’ll get a steal a game.
Stay away from these guys if you want to get some steals from your center:
- Brook Lopez, 0.41
- Jonas Valanciunas, 0.38
- Pau Gasol, 0.31
Sleeper picks:
- Nerlens Noel, should get enough minutes in OKC to do some damage. Anything over 18 minutes a game is a win already compared to last season. I can see him easily join the 1,8+ steals club if he gets 26+ minutes a night backing up Adams and getting some PF minutes.
Deep Sleeper picks:
- Willy Hernangomez, not a fan of his, but he can get some steals. Stats don’t jump at you, but he has some decent instincts – Averaged almost a steal post AS game as a rookie a year ago. I’m expecting somewhere around 0.8 steals if he manages to get 24 minutes a game.
- Kevon Looney, averaged 1,3 steals and 1,8 blocks over last 15 games in only 22 minutes per night. He could emerge as the starting center until Boogie is back. Expect around 1,4 steals per game from him this season.
- Greg Monroe, will be backing up Val in Toronto, but could see around 22 minutes a game. He’s at 1.1 steals per game on average for his career, so any sign he gets decent minutes, could mean he’s value late in drafts (22 minutes: 0.8 steals and 8 rebounds with great fg% is possible).
- Daniel Theis, secretly one of the more impressive rookies in a deep calsss last year. Season got cut short due to an injury, but Theis is really good. Almost averaged a steal in 18 minutes a game post AS game. If he gets close to 20 minutes a game, he will be a definitive plus-contributor in the steals category: 0.9 per game.
Forward:
- Anthony Davis 1.53, AD, Boogie and WCS are the only centers to put up games in which they got 6 or more steals this year. AD seems to be able to stay healthy now as well – my #1 pick overall. Averaged 2.0 post AS break. Going for 1.8 this season.
- Draymond Green 1.34, somewhat of a disappointment after averaging 2.0 last year, but still great numbers for him. I think it’s more realistic to expect 1.5 than to hope for 2.0 again.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 1.45, trending upwards. Could get 1.7+ this season.
- Kawhi Leonard 2.00, oh man. The defense in Toronto will be scary. Green, OG and Kawhi will be hawking. 2.0 should be expected.
- Khris Middleton 1.45, steady as they come. An easy 1.5 steals per game next year.
- Kyle Anderson 1.55, role could/should expand in Memphis, and they’ll love his ability to lock up players. His minutes will rise, and so will his steals numbers. He could come close to 1.9 steals per game.
- Lebron James 1.41, he’s not slowing down anytime soon, right? I’m expecting him to get 1.4 steals per game with the Lakers.
- Paul George 2.04, His numbers took a bit of a divve after the AS break, but with him finding a home in OKC and Roberson returning soon, I can see him keep up his pre AS numbers 2.0 steals per game at minimum.
- Robert Covington 1.71, with Zhaire incoming and Cov’s role in the playoffs being reconsidered, I expected him to get a few less minutes per game this year. Zhaire is injured now, but I still believe Cov could get under 30 minutes a game. I’m expecting him to average around 1.6 steals per game.
- Thaddeus Young 1.67, Thad has always been a great source of steals from your PF/SF position. He’ll be going for 1.7 steals a game this season.
- Trevor Ariza 1.46, last year was a down year for him steals-wise, as he dipped to 1.5. He had been averaging close to 2 steals a game in previous years. In Phoenix he might play a lot of PF. Quick hands could lead to increased steals numbers per minute, but he could see a few less minutes per game (averaged 34-35 minutes a game in HOU). I’m expecting him to average 1.5 steals a game again this year.
Stay away from these guys if you want to get some steals from your forwards:
- Danilo Gallinari 0.57
- Dirk Nowitzki 0.56
- Jeff Green 0.53
- Julius Randle 0.52
- LaMarcus Aldridge 0.57
- Lauri Markkanen 0.57
- Michael Beasley 0.49
- Ryan Anderson 0.36
- Serge Ibaka 0.38
Sleeper picks:
- Larry Nance, one of my favorite breakout candidates. Cavs have little reason to not give him minutes over TT. Can give you some great steals numbers as a center. If he starts and gets over 25 minutes a game, expect him to give you 1.6 steals per game.
- Jonathan Isaac, love his multi cat potential. Already got 1.2 steals per game in just under 20 mins/game. 1.9 steals post AS break. He could get 2+ a game this season!
- Mario Hezonja, 1.4 as a starter, 1.5 post AS break. Pencil him in for approx. 1.6 steals a game.
- Stanley Johnson, still a limited player (Remember the Winslow vs SJ debates? We all lost). 1.8 steals per game post AS. That number could stick if Casey liked him enough to roll him out there for 26+ mins a game. GRIII came to town, and he could challenge him for minutes, though. And Kennard may demand some minutes as well.
- Josh Jackson, I likened his rookie impact to Corey Brewer type numbeers befoeee the season started, and he struggled all year. He came a long a bit later in the season and I think he showed some really nice flashes. Not sure what the rotation will look like (I believe Chriss/Bender will suffer most). I could see a gamble on JJ paying dividens, and I am prediciting a really nicce amount of steals: 1.7 steals per game for JJ.
- Maurice Harkless, 1.3 post AS game. Might be best to just wait it out until Moe decides to start his string of 6 games in which he turns it up. 1.2 for him.
- Taurean Prince, 1.3 steals post AS game. He could keep that up, 1.4 steeals per game next year.
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, was a bit up and down and had some injuries (just like he’s injured now), but expect him to average 1.2 or more steals.
- Aaron Gordon, moved back to PF and averaged 1.3 steals per game post AS. He’ll develop further and could surpass 1.5 steals a game. Watch out for his FG% though and bad ast:to ratio.
- Dillon Brooks, 1.1 steals per game post AS. Really decent for a second round pick. Could develop further with Evans out of town. I’m predicting 1.2 per game.
- Rudy Gay, Always been a really nice source of steals, hovering around 1.5 steals a game for most of his career. In his first year back from his injury he put up under a steal/game for the first time since his rookie year. He could go for 1.1 to 1.2 steals a game again this year.
- OG Anunoby, still really young and we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg. I fully believe he’ll see 1.1+ steals a game this season.
Deep Sleeper picks:
- Devin Robinson, He might not see a lot of playing time, so consider this a deep/dynasty sleeper. But he can rack up stats. Put in a good effort in SL too. Not going to give a estimate here, just keeep an eye on his development.
- Alan Williams, still unsigned, for whatever reason. I think there’s a lot of teams out there who could use his positive energy, rebounding and really decent defense. Again, just a name to keep an eye on.
- Corey Brewer, unsigned as well, but averaged over 2 steals a game after signing with OKC late last year. Could be an option later in this season.
- DeAndre’ Bembry, weird fit in today’s game. He can’t shoot and is maybe most like Evan Turner. I think the Hawks may like to play him alongside Trae Young a lot, due to his playmaking skills and defense. 1.5 steals should be very posssible for this guy. Keep an eye on him.
- Terrence Ross, only played 24 games due to injuries, but with Hezonja out of town, he should see minutes. Pencil Ross in for 1.3+ steals a game.
- Patrick Patterson, I think he’ll start in OKC. That could mean 25 minutes a game in which Pat² should be able to average 1.2 steals per game.
- Pascal Siakam, every Raps fan is telling me Siakam is about to break out. I’m not sure if the minutes are there (Monroe was just signed and OG could play quite some PF), but let’s roll with the narrative – Averaged 0.8 in under 20 minutes a game. 24-26 minutes a game and Siakam will put up 1.1 steals per game.
- Royce O’Neale, numbers don’t jump at you, but did average 1.8 steals in the few games he started. Just a name to keep an eye on during his soph season.
- Cedi Osman, half a steal in only 15 min/game post AS. Bigger role, more minutes, and he’ll be able to get 1.0 steal per game this year.
- Josh Okogie, 1.8 steals per game as a soph in college, and 2.3 in Summer League. I think he will play a decent amount of minutes this year already. Keep an eye on him or pick him up in Dynasty leagues. He will be really good.
- Melvin Frazier Jr., has tremendous length and averaged 1.9 as a soph and 2.2 as a jr in College with Tulane. I think he might suprise people this season already. Keep an eye on him.
Guard:
- Victor Oladipo, averaged even MORE steals post AS break – at a 3.1 clip. I can see him approaching that number this season, unless Evans enables Dipo to sit more.
- Eric Bledsoe, averaged almost 2 per game. We’ll have to see what their game looks like next season, but I’m assuming a 1.6/game bet is a rather safe one.
- Jimmy Butler, 2 per game. Fun little fact: Kawhi (2.0:1.8), Butler (2.0:1.8), Gary Harris (1.8:1.8), Covington (1.7:1.6), Thad (1.7:1.3), Otto Porter (1.5:1.0), Ariza (1.5:0.8) and KCP (1.4:1.3) are the only players to average 1.4 steals or more, without posting a negative steal:to ratio.
- Russell Westbrook, 1.8/game. Loads of TO’s though, and grabbing him forces your hand in at least two other cats, maybe three if his FT% sucks again.
- Gary Harris, y’all know how I feel about Harris by now. I think he’s going to make another jump this year and will average over 2 steals per game.
- James Harden, tapered off a bit, and I’m not sure how he will play with Ariza and LMAM out of town. He might regress a tiny bit (steals).
- Ben Simmons, what a ‘rookie’ year. Is he a guard? Anyway – pencil him in for another ~1.8 steals per game season.
- Patrick Beverley, I can see his numbers go down across the board. Shai will be pushing him for minutes, Teo will be brought back as well. Let’s say 1.5/game would be a good scenario.
- Lonzo Ball, not a big fan, but his defense was good. Rondo will be sharing duties with him, so I guess his minutes will go down (almost 35 mpg last season). I think he’ll geet a comparable number of steals this season.
- Chris Paul, standing on his last leg and his steals numbers have been going down YOY ovver the past three seasons (74, 61 and 58 games played). I wouldn’t burn a first round pick on him this season, just because the injury/age worries.
- Ricky Rubio, LOVE this fit in Utah, next to Mitchell. Ball hawking duo there. Good bet for 1.8 steals per game.
- Stephen Curry, went from 2.1 to 1.8 to 1.6 steals per game. Not sure what his season will look like when it comes to totals and actually playing during your playoff weeks. If you feel confident there, his 1.6-1.8 steals should be really valuable.
- Jrue Holiday, 1.5 for season, 1.7 over last three months, 1.8 over last two months, then 2.0 in last month. Absolutely turned on the burners in the playoffs. Rondo is out of town and Elfrid can’t bring the same Rondo did. We’ll probably see more PG minutes for Jrue this year, while he thrived as a SG, which could slow him down a tiny bit… but I’m predicting 1.8-2.0 steals for him. He’s really feeling himself.
- Donovan Mitchell, 1.5 steals as a rookie guard. Game really evolved during the season and ended up getting 1.7 steals a game to close out the year. I think he’ll trend towards 1.9 steals per game this season.
- Jeff Teague, underrated player, especially last season. Great AST:TO ratio, nice amount of steals and really decent percentages for a PG. I don’t really see him getting more than 1.4-1.5 steals a game next season though.
- Khris Middleton, was trending towards 2 steals a game after the AS break. I think he could get 1.7-1.8 steals a game again this year. Overall just a really good player.
- John Wall, struggled mightily last season. Injuries and efficiency issues slowed him down a lot. Ranked 59th for the year overall in 9 cat. Far cry from his mid 2nd round value he has seen in previous seasons. Usually hovered around 2 steals a game, and I kind of expect him to average at leeast 1.7 steals a game this season.
Sleeper picks:
- Kris Dunn, still has trouble scoring the ball, but he was killing it on defense and was a really nice distributor. I think he’ll geet 2+ steals this year. There have been some rumblings about the Bulls not being happy about his offseason activities, but what are they going to do? Play Cameron Payne over him? They just sent out Jerian Grant as well.
- Kent Bazemore, overpaid, but underrated, crazy as it sounds. Good 3pt/blk numbers from a SG/SF, with really good steals averages. I think he could get 1.5 steals per game again.
- T.J. McConnell, smart player who knows how to keep his man away from the basket. Really quick hands. BUT, Fultz is back and TJ will have a hard time getting minutes. If someone gets injured, grab him for some good steals, ast and ast/to numbers.
- Josh Richardson, got more minutes than what I thought he did. Miami is a weirdly good team. Josh averaged 1.5 for the year but increased his production during the second half. I think he’s a risk to get slightly lower minute totals (averaged 33+ per game), but I still believe he can get you 1.7 steals a game.
- Dejounte Murray, All Defense team. How cool was that? Was top 3 in steals post AS break. Not yourr typical PG as he’ll give you more reb than ast. I’m prretty conffident Murray is going to get around 2.0 ast/game.
- Frank Ntilikina, not sure what to make of him. He’s talented, but I’m not sure if he’s a PG. NY will throw loads of minutes his way to find out as well. Has the size to rack up decent numbeers on defense. Can’t see him average under 1.2 steals a game.
- Terry Rozier, a steal a game in 25 minutes. Hayward, Smart, Irving all coming back will push Rozier all the way to the back of the rotation, but he might be moved. Keep close eye on him or grab him before trade deadline comes near.
- Tyreke Evans, 1.1 a game but 1.7 in last month and 1.5 over last 2. I think playing for McMillan could help his defensive numbers. 1.2 steals a game.
- Elfrid Payton, not a fan at all. And Jrue might move back to PG. But he should get some steals, right? 1.4 per game for Elfrid.
- Markelle Fultz, I think he’s become underrated. He’s a good passer, good defender with good size and used to be a nice shooter as well. I think he’ll get 24+ minutes per game and averages 1.5 steals per game.
- Caris LeVert, will average a bit more than last year – pencil Caris in for 1.4 steals a game.
- Fred VanVleet, slightly under average steals numbers for the season, but did the damage in 20.0 minutes a game. If Lowry goes down or something changes, he could see decent minutes. I think he goes over a steal a game.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic, really like this guy. Underrated as a rookie (slightly old for a rookie – 26), but game developed nicely over the season. I predict 1.2 steals per game for Bogdan, putting him slightly above average for guards.
- Dennis Smith jr., playing with Doncic and WesMatthews will allow him to get more steals this season. Was good in college at picking pockets already. Expect 1.4+ steals per game.
- Josh Hart, very crowded backcourt in LA right now with Rondo and Ball at pg, and KCP coming back, but they could be sellers around the deadline. Hart is actually really good and I can see him bust out post AS break (unless the Lakerss bring in a guy like Butler or Kawhi at the 2).
Deep Sleeper picks:
- Wade Baldwin, should back up both Dame and CJ. Blazers let Napier go, because he wasn’t able to bring the defense needed when playing alongside those two stars. Wade Baldwin has the tools and defensive talent to provide a boost off the bench. I think he could see a load of minutes as the first guard off the pine. 1.5 steals for Wade.
- Shaquille Harrison, got 2.4 steals per game in SL (keep in mind, SL is a messy game with loads of TOs), but also only needed 16 minutes a game to average a steal last year. He could challenges Knight for the starting position.
- Elie Okobo, really quick and strong player, I can see him, just like Harrison, grab a starting position. He could average a healthy 1.2 steals per game.
- Tyus Jones, everybody knows his steals/minute numbers are crazy. We all know Thibs can’t be trusted if you don’t have a history with the Bulls. Hopefully Tyus can play more and get over 1.5 steals per game.
- Delon Wright, was part of some really good defensive line ups for the Raps. I would just love to see a Wright/Green/Leonard/OG core on the floor at times. Good luck scoring on that. Wright is gonna get 1.3 steals a game this season.
- Buddy Hield, might not start over 5 games this year, but he’s gonna be the 6th man of the year (calling it). Averaged 1.1 steals for the year, 1.7 steals over last month, paired with incredibly good shooting. He’s gonna get 1.4 steals a game this season.
- Sterling Brown, I’m a fan. Hiss shooting was already better than Snell’s and his defense sis really good. I’m betting Brown will start by the time we reach December, and he’ll get 1.2 steals a game.
- Jerian Grant, he will be pushing DJ Augustin for his job in Orlando. Grant is by no means a great player, but he can pass the ball and play some defense. I don’t think he will win the starting job, and I could ssee DJ still get his 28 minutes agame, but IF it happens, Grant could be a good source of steals.
- David Nwaba, incredible howw he was unsigned for so long. Cavs finally signed him, and I hope he’ll back up both Cedi and whoever they start at SG. Let another team sign Hood. 1.2+ sneaky steals should be attainable then.
- Jevon Carter, this is going really really deep, especially with his surgery this month. Harrison is still Conley’ss main backup, but Carter is a really decent player. Carter averaged 1.9, 1.7 2.5 and 3.0 steals in his college seasons. Love him as a backup player.
- De’Anthony Melton, got 3 steals a game in Summer League, and 1.9 per game in his only year with USC. He will be a very decent player, and the Rockets will call his number for defensive purposes.
Stay away from these guards if you want to secure your steals cat:
- Allen Crabbe 0.62
- D.J. Augustin 0.72
- Eric Gordon 0.63
- Gerald Green 0.53
- J.J. Barea 0.50
- J.J. Redick 0.50
- Jeremy Lamb 0.76
- Joe Harris 0.49
- Klay Thompson 0.76
- Kyle Korver 0.42
- Trey Burke 0.67
- Yogi Ferrell 0.78
Looking back at my sleeper picks last season, these were the averages for them:
- T.J. McConnell – prediction: 1.7, reality: 1.2
- Tony Allen – prediction: -, reality: 0.5
- ✓ Nerlens Noel – prediction: -, reality: 1.0
- ✓ Delon Wright – prediction: -, reality: 1.0
- ✓ Kris Dunn – prediction: top 5, reality: top 5
- Ian Mahinmi – prediction: ~1, reality: 0.5
- Marcus Smart – prediction: 1.8-2.0, reality: 1.3
- ✓ Ricky Rubio – prediction: -, reality: 1.6
- PJ Tucker – prediction: ~1.5, reality: 1.0
- ✓ Joe Ingles – prediction: 1.5+, reality: 1.1
- Rondae Hollis Jefferson – prediction: ~1.5, reality: 1.0
- ✓ Khris Middleton – prediction: 1.7, reality: 1.5
- D’Angelo Russell – prediction: 1.6, reality: 0.8
- Taurean Prince – prediction: 1.4, reality: 1.0
- Justise Winslow – prediction: 1.4, reality: 0.8
- ✓ Gary Harris – prediction: 1.6, reality: 1.8
- ✓ Steven Adams – prediction: 1.1, reality: 1.2
- ✓ Andre Roberson – prediction: -, reality: 1.2
- Kelly Oubre – prediction: -, reality: 1.0
- ✓ Willie Cauley Stein & Jusuf Nurkic – prediction: 1.2, reality: 1.1 & 0.8
- ✓ Josh Richardson – prediction: 1.7, reality: 1.5
- TJ Warren – prediction: -, reality: 1.0If you like these articles, please give me a follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/perkinsfor3. Thanks!
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